Piecing together disparate data for economic and market insights
Written by Neelkanth Mishra | Updated: April 6, 2021 8:56:44 am This appeared in the Indian Express on April 6, 2021 (link) Does it even matter what interest rate the government pays on the debt it takes? Interest on government debt is a transfer from taxpayers to savers (who own government bonds), and as the … Read more
We are in the early stages of an extraordinary episode of rapid scaling up of new companiesNeelkanth MishraLast Updated at April 5, 2021 23:10 IST This is the first in a four-part series published in the Business Standard (link). Over the past 15 years, economic activity as well as wealth creation has shifted noticeably to … Read more
Retail ownership of the BSE500 has fallen from 21 per cent in 2005 to 14 per cent now despite net buyingNeelkanth MishraLast Updated at March 2, 2021 23:04 IST This appeared in the Business Standard (link). Retail participation in equity markets shot up in India last year, like in most countries. Retail share of trading … Read more
The growth impact of PLI schemes could start showing up in FY22Neelkanth MishraLast Updated at February 8, 2021 22:41 IST This appeared in the Business Standard on 8 February 2021 (link). Total central government spending in FY22 should be unchanged from the government’s revised numbers for FY21, with the pandemic-triggered allocations to save lives and … Read more
This appeared on Bloomberg (link): Ronojoy and I discussed how the budget re-affirmed the government’s pro-growth stance visible since the expansion of the PLI schemes in Nov-2020, bond yields, bad bank, etc.
Aware of its own limitations, the government is carefully supporting industrial and consumer sentiment to take economy back to pre-pandemic pathIn some ways, what the government did not do is as important while assessing its focus on the quality of expenditure.Written by Neelkanth Mishra | February 2, 2021 3:00:06 am This appeared in the Indian … Read more
This appeared in the Explained section of the Indian Express (link) on 26-January-2021. On February 1, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman will present what could turn out to be India’s most consequential Budget in years. What is the status of the post-Covid recovery process, and what are the concerns going forward? What should you look for … Read more
Main points made:1. Important to predict what is likely to happen rather than what should happen 2. More than in normal years, significant uncertainty in nominal GDP growth assumption for FY22. The right measure would be to compare FY22 real growth over FY20 – current consensus assumptions are too low. If one takes +5%, FY22 … Read more
The pandemic will leave some economic scars globally; given the uncertainty in the global economy and polity, our policymakers must avoid dogma and remain agile. Neelkanth Mishra | January 9, 2021This appear in India Today (link). ISSUE DATE: January 18, 2021 UPDATED: January 9, 2021 02:36 IST Hope 2021 is better than 2020” sets a … Read more
FY22 was once projected to be 13 per cent higher than FY20. Can six months of lockdown bring growth down to 1 per cent?Neelkanth Mishra | Last Updated at January 4, 2021 23:55 IST This was published in the Business Standard (link). India appears to be well on its way to putting the Covid-19 pandemic … Read more