Cheap money does not mean more capital flows

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Cross-border capital flows do not just get driven by interest rates; plumbing and savings patterns may matter moreNeelkanth Mishra | Last Updated at November 30, 2020 23:38 IST (This was published in the Business Standard: link) Portfolio equity inflows into emerging markets (EMs) picked up strongly in November as the US election uncertainty lifted, and … Read more

A calibrated package

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One must appreciate the restraint in “spending other people’s money”, a tendency most regimes find hard to resist. But it is equally important that nominal GDP growth picks up strongly.Written by Neelkanth Mishra | Updated: November 14, 2020 8:44:51 am (This was published in the Indian Express: link) The third package confirms some patterns in … Read more

The post-lockdown scars

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As economic indicators and tax receipts improve, evidence of stress begin to appear tooNeelkanth Mishra | Last Updated at November 3, 2020 03:08 IST (This was published in the Business Standard: link) While assessing the post-pandemic economy, last month’s Tessellatum (“After the Storm”, October 6), expected upper-income wage earners to exit the lockdown with higher … Read more

Recovery and its discontents

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New MPC’s unambiguous messaging on inflation should help buyers of government bonds take the riskWritten by Neelkanth Mishra | Updated: October 12, 2020 8:53:54 am (This was published in the Indian Express: link) The economy is rebounding faster than earlier expected, and year-on-year comparisons, only partly helped by the economic weakness seen in the second … Read more

After the storm: Taking stock of the economic scars of the pandemic

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Now that the steep decline in economic activity is behind us, it is time to assess what parts of the economy have the worst scarsNeelkanth Mishra | Last Updated at October 6, 2020 06:47 IST (This was published in the Business Standard: link) Even as the number of cases and daily deaths are at unacceptably … Read more

An Expert Explains: Decoding India’s GDP contraction by 23.9%

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The contraction seen in first-quarter GDP data is severe, but not unexpected. What should be done — or not done – at the level of govt policy so that the economy gets a chance to rebound as quickly as possible?Written by Neelkanth Mishra | Updated: September 13, 2020 11:43:51 am (This was published in the … Read more

Are Covid and the economy still linked?

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The pandemic, much less fatal than earlier feared, is now beyond control, but the economy can still be helpedNeelkanth Mishra | Last Updated at September 2, 2020 02:10 IST (This was published in the Business Standard: link) The Covid-19 pandemic count continues to grow in India, but most concurrent indicators of economic activity continue to … Read more

Handling the dollar deluge

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Diverging fiscal responses to the crisis can create serious macroeconomic challenges for countries globallyNeelkanth Mishra | Last Updated at August 5, 2020 01:42 IST (This was published in the Business Standard: link) The Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI’s) balance sheet size has grown sharply to 27 per cent of gross domestic product (GDP) in early … Read more

After the rural recovery

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As private investment and consumption settle at far lower levels than earlier anticipated, the government’s role in the economy over the next two years or so would need to be much larger than it has been in the last three decades.Written by Neelkanth Mishra | Updated: July 29, 2020 8:58:37 am (This was published in … Read more

The end of food inflation?

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Improving efficiency in producing and converting edible calories when demand weakens could throw new social challengesNeelkanth Mishra | Last Updated at July 1, 2020 00:14 IST (This was published in the Business Standard: link) Will food be the channel through which unprecedented monetary intervention may drive inflation? Will the earth run out of land and … Read more