Piecing together disparate data for economic and market insights
Neelkanth Mishra | 2 November 2023 This appeared in the Economic Times on 2 November 2023 (link). Nineteen months after the Fed started hiking interest rates, and forecasters issued recession warnings, US growth remains robust, with 2023 forecasts getting upgraded. Economic output in the September 2023 quarter rose a remarkable 4.9% year-on-year, much better than … Read more
Unlike many times earlier, the Communist leadership may not have a policy fix for China’s economic troubles this time. This has serious repercussions for the country and the world. Neelkanth Mishra | 16 August 2023 This was published in the Times of India on 16 August 2023 (link). This is not the first time that … Read more
Recent evidence of a sharp slowdown in house construction in major markets poses downside risks to global growthNeelkanth Mishra | Apr 10 2023 | 10:31 PM IST This appeared in the Business Standard on April 11, 2023 (link). An important and potent channel of monetary policy transmission is the housing market. Weakness in housing demand … Read more
Ageing populations are likely to slow capital formation in North Asia, hurting global growth Neelkanth Mishra | Published in the Business Standard on February 06, 2023 (link) In Tessellatum in the last three months, we have discussed three of the major implications of Asia’s ageing: That demographic shift in 10 major Asian economies (the A-10: … Read more
While the economy may be slowing, it is growing above consensus estimates Neelkanth Mishra | December 31, 2022 11:56 IST This appeared in the Indian Express on 31 December, 2022 (link) Restrictions imposed on activities were fully eased only around March this year. But, they had mostly been lifted by September 2021. We can now … Read more
Neelkanth Mishra | Last Updated at December 12, 2022 22:51 IST This was published in the Business Standard on December 13, 2022 (link). In the Tessellatum last month, we discussed the first major finding from our project assessing the impact of Asia’s ageing on the global supply of workers and savings, and on global economic … Read more
Growth downturns can expose vulnerabilities that increase market risks Neelkanth Mishra | July 4, 2022 22:44 IST This appeared in the Business Standard on July 5, 2022 (link). There are two drivers of market downturns: Cuts to forward earnings estimates and a decline in the price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple that investors ascribe to them. A 15 … Read more
We discussed the need to devalue the currency, jobs, growth, and a number of other economic issues.
Housing down-cycle shaved more than 1 per cent from growth annually for nearly a decade; it is turning now Neelkanth Mishra | Last Updated at December 13, 2021 23:10 IST This appeared in the Business Standard on 14 December 2021 (link). India needs to build one crore new houses every year. The country’s population will … Read more