Piecing together disparate data for economic and market insights
Neelkanth Mishra | March 28, 2024, 11:45pm This was published in the Economic Times on 29 March 2024 (link). ‘If the economy is growing so fast, why is our volume growth so weak?’ is a question asked by management teams of several large consumer companies. These concerns have intensified after the recent strong GDP release, … Read more
Government is undertaking difficult job of dialling back its spending, marking a near complete unwinding of the pandemic-driven fiscal expansionWritten by Neelkanth MishraFebruary 2, 2024 06:55 IST This appeared in the Indian Express on 2 February, 2024 (link). Economic theory suggests that governments should spend more when private firms and households do not feel confident … Read more
Neelkanth Mishra | 2 November 2023 This appeared in the Economic Times on 2 November 2023 (link). Nineteen months after the Fed started hiking interest rates, and forecasters issued recession warnings, US growth remains robust, with 2023 forecasts getting upgraded. Economic output in the September 2023 quarter rose a remarkable 4.9% year-on-year, much better than … Read more
By Neelkanth Mishra, Last Updated: Sep 06, 2023, 05:39 AM IST This was published in the Economic Times on September 6, 2023 (link) India’s business services exports have grown so rapidly of late that their incremental impact is now nearly as large as that of IT Services exports. While their base is smaller, they grew … Read more
Unlike many times earlier, the Communist leadership may not have a policy fix for China’s economic troubles this time. This has serious repercussions for the country and the world. Neelkanth Mishra | 16 August 2023 This was published in the Times of India on 16 August 2023 (link). This is not the first time that … Read more
With global economic policy preferences being the opposite of those seen after the 2008-09 crisis, so should be the implicationsNeelkanth Mishra | Last Updated : Jul 13 2023 | 9:33 PM IST This appeared in the Business Standard on July 14, 2023 (link). Despite headline inflation having moderated meaningfully from the peak, bond yields in … Read more
The persistent gap between credit and deposit growth has perplexed many. Could it be due to shortfalls in money injection by the RBI?Neelkanth Mishra | Jun 05 2023 | 8:54 PM IST This appeared in the Business Standard on 6 June 2023 (link). Over the past year, deposit growth in the Indian banking system has … Read more
Continuing fiscal laxity in the US means monetary policy must do more of the inflation fighting, increasing risks of financial accidents Neelkanth Mishra | Last Updated : May 08 2023 | 10:16 PM IST This appeared in the Business Standard on 9 May 2023 (link). Volatility in stock prices of US banks has persisted, even … Read more
Recent evidence of a sharp slowdown in house construction in major markets poses downside risks to global growthNeelkanth Mishra | Apr 10 2023 | 10:31 PM IST This appeared in the Business Standard on April 11, 2023 (link). An important and potent channel of monetary policy transmission is the housing market. Weakness in housing demand … Read more
The failure of SVB was due to idiosyncratic reasons, but shows how higher rates can expose fault lines in unforeseen placesNeelkanth Mishra | Last Updated at March 13, 2023 22:54 IST This appeared in the Business Standard on March 14, 2023 (link). Over the past several months, as interest-rate expectations have risen rapidly, we have … Read more