Column

Will policymakers take the risks needed to sustain India’s economic growth?

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To sustain rapid economic growth over the medium term, policymakers might need to take some well-calculated risksNeelkanth Mishra This appeared in the Print Edition of Business Today for Sep 15, 2024 (link) In aspiring to be a developed country by 2047, India is trying to achieve in less than 60 years what took most of … Read more

No more ‘immaculate disinflation’?

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This appeared in the Times of India on 13 August 2024 (link). Over the past two years, consensus on the US economy had shifted from anticipating a ‘hard landing’ (that is, a recession) to a ‘soft landing’: That inflation would be contained without much of a growth sacrifice. Some observers hailed this as ‘immaculate disinflation’. … Read more

China + 1 = China?

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This appeared in the Economic Times on 8 July 2024 as “Chinese takeaway plus one“. Over the last few years, as the US-China strategic conflict has intensified, ‘China+1’ has become a popular phrase. Countries, including India, have jostled to be the ‘+1’, easing policies and providing incentives to attract foreign firms trying to reduce their … Read more

The Consumption Conundrum

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Neelkanth Mishra | March 28, 2024, 11:45pm This was published in the Economic Times on 29 March 2024 (link). ‘If the economy is growing so fast, why is our volume growth so weak?’ is a question asked by management teams of several large consumer companies. These concerns have intensified after the recent strong GDP release, … Read more

Stability – not political gestures

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Government is undertaking difficult job of dialling back its spending, marking a near complete unwinding of the pandemic-driven fiscal expansionWritten by Neelkanth MishraFebruary 2, 2024 06:55 IST This appeared in the Indian Express on 2 February, 2024 (link). Economic theory suggests that governments should spend more when private firms and households do not feel confident … Read more

When DMs become EMs

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Neelkanth Mishra | 2 November 2023 This appeared in the Economic Times on 2 November 2023 (link). Nineteen months after the Fed started hiking interest rates, and forecasters issued recession warnings, US growth remains robust, with 2023 forecasts getting upgraded. Economic output in the September 2023 quarter rose a remarkable 4.9% year-on-year, much better than … Read more

Skills, the Secret Sauce

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By Neelkanth Mishra, Last Updated: Sep 06, 2023, 05:39 AM IST This was published in the Economic Times on September 6, 2023 (link) India’s business services exports have grown so rapidly of late that their incremental impact is now nearly as large as that of IT Services exports. While their base is smaller, they grew … Read more

The policy inversion

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With global economic policy preferences being the opposite of those seen after the 2008-09 crisis, so should be the implicationsNeelkanth Mishra | Last Updated : Jul 13 2023 | 9:33 PM IST This appeared in the Business Standard on July 14, 2023 (link). Despite headline inflation having moderated meaningfully from the peak, bond yields in … Read more