Piecing together disparate data for economic and market insights
Government is undertaking difficult job of dialling back its spending, marking a near complete unwinding of the pandemic-driven fiscal expansionWritten by Neelkanth MishraFebruary 2, 2024 06:55 IST This appeared in the Indian Express on 2 February, 2024 (link). Economic theory suggests that governments should spend more when private firms and households do not feel confident … Read more
Neelkanth Mishra | 2 November 2023 This appeared in the Economic Times on 2 November 2023 (link). Nineteen months after the Fed started hiking interest rates, and forecasters issued recession warnings, US growth remains robust, with 2023 forecasts getting upgraded. Economic output in the September 2023 quarter rose a remarkable 4.9% year-on-year, much better than … Read more
As the resilience of the domestic economy gets tested by global headwinds, deft fiscal manoeuvres may be necessary Updated: February 2, 2023 07:40 IST | Neelkanth Mishra This appeared in the Indian Express on February 2, 2023 (link) As the state’s footprint on the economy has shrunk over the past three decades, the relevance of … Read more
Indian government bonds are now cheaper than Indian equities. The post-Budget rise in bond yields in India is more due to plumbing challenges than insufficient savings Neelkanth Mishra | Last Updated at February 7, 2022 23:20 This appeared in the Business Standard on February 8, 2022 (link). As economies emerge out of the shadows of … Read more
Governments face a new fiscal situation: They have more funds than they can allocate Written by Neelkanth Mishra | Updated: February 2, 2022 4:58:16 am This appeared in the Indian Express on 2 February 2022 (link). If the tax-to-GDP ratio continues to climb, as it appears likely to, fiscal space may continue to expand, even … Read more
Tax receipts are surging and markets are primed for higher state government deficits, but states are struggling to spend Neelkanth Mishra | Last Updated at January 11, 2022 00:13 IST This appeared in the Business Standard on January 11, 2022 (link). One can easily spend a few thousand rupees, maybe even a few lakhs, but … Read more
This appeared in the Explained section of the Indian Express (link) on 26-January-2021. On February 1, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman will present what could turn out to be India’s most consequential Budget in years. What is the status of the post-Covid recovery process, and what are the concerns going forward? What should you look for … Read more
Main points made:1. Important to predict what is likely to happen rather than what should happen 2. More than in normal years, significant uncertainty in nominal GDP growth assumption for FY22. The right measure would be to compare FY22 real growth over FY20 – current consensus assumptions are too low. If one takes +5%, FY22 … Read more
One must appreciate the restraint in “spending other people’s money”, a tendency most regimes find hard to resist. But it is equally important that nominal GDP growth picks up strongly.Written by Neelkanth Mishra | Updated: November 14, 2020 8:44:51 am (This was published in the Indian Express: link) The third package confirms some patterns in … Read more
As private investment and consumption settle at far lower levels than earlier anticipated, the government’s role in the economy over the next two years or so would need to be much larger than it has been in the last three decades.Written by Neelkanth Mishra | Updated: July 29, 2020 8:58:37 am (This was published in … Read more