Piecing together disparate data for economic and market insights
thetessellatum This appeared in the Times of India on 4 March 2026 (link). Nearly everyone expected this to be a short war. Not just those who started it, but also commodity markets. Oil prices jumped around 10% when the conflict started, much less than the reaction when Russia attacked Ukraine. This is understandable: Iran exports only … Read more
This appeared in the Times of India on 2 February 2026 (link) Sometimes, boring and predictable is good, if not great. The FY2027 union budget ticks that box.Greater certainty of fiscal and regulatory policies for businesses and investors enables them to take business risk – an essential condition to reduce India’s long-term cost of capital. … Read more
In this video, Bidisha and I discuss India’s economic outlook, focusing on the upcoming Union Budget 2026: global economic turbulence, India’s growth drivers, and critical policy priorities. Main points We discuss the significant risk posed by disruptions to global capital flows, drawing parallels to the period between 1989 and 1993. Major global players like the … Read more
This appeared in the New Indian Express on 1 February 2026 (link). Published online: 31 Jan 2026, 11:14 pm The 2026-27 budget is being presented at a time of rare macroeconomic stability in India—strong growth with low inflation. This is a result of the government prioritising economic stability over short-term growth imperatives: a conservative and … Read more
How has fiscal consolidation helped bring down the cost of capital in India? What are its implications for macroeconomic stability, investment cycles, and capital markets? In NISM’s Masterclass Episode 26, Sashi Krishnan, Director, NISM, and I discuss fiscal discipline, government borrowing, interest rates, and their transmission into the real economy.
It’s a freewheeling chat. A lightly edited Gemini summary of the video: We discuss India’s journey and ambitions in the semiconductor industry, the India Semiconductor Mission (ISM), its objectives, and the challenges faced in building a semiconductor ecosystem.ISM started in December 2021 with a $10 billion budget to create a robust semiconductor ecosystem in India. … Read more
Sonia and I discuss 2:19 Geopolitics and Trade 4:21 Trump vs NATO Allies 8:00 Whither the Global Trade War? Global trade is growing faster than global GDP 10:20 Effects on Markets 14:29 Silver as an Investment? 18:55 Potential of Metals in 2026 27:03 Large Cap Equity Performance 30:47 Economy Reviving? 36:42 Indian Economy & Collateral … Read more
Conducted on 16 December, published on 22 December (link). In an interview with Subrata Panda & Samie Modak in Mumbai, Mishra says as growth momentum becomes clearer, foreign investors, who went underweight India, may return. Q: Why did Indian equity markets underperform global peers this year?A: FY25 saw simultaneous fiscal and monetary tightening.Fiscal tightening amounted … Read more
Mukesh and I discuss why we are at the start of a true golden age of Indian entrepreneurship: