fiscal

No more ‘immaculate disinflation’?

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This appeared in the Times of India on 13 August 2024 (link). Over the past two years, consensus on the US economy had shifted from anticipating a ‘hard landing’ (that is, a recession) to a ‘soft landing’: That inflation would be contained without much of a growth sacrifice. Some observers hailed this as ‘immaculate disinflation’. … Read more

Stability – not political gestures

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Government is undertaking difficult job of dialling back its spending, marking a near complete unwinding of the pandemic-driven fiscal expansionWritten by Neelkanth MishraFebruary 2, 2024 06:55 IST This appeared in the Indian Express on 2 February, 2024 (link). Economic theory suggests that governments should spend more when private firms and households do not feel confident … Read more

When DMs become EMs

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Neelkanth Mishra | 2 November 2023 This appeared in the Economic Times on 2 November 2023 (link). Nineteen months after the Fed started hiking interest rates, and forecasters issued recession warnings, US growth remains robust, with 2023 forecasts getting upgraded. Economic output in the September 2023 quarter rose a remarkable 4.9% year-on-year, much better than … Read more

The policy inversion

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With global economic policy preferences being the opposite of those seen after the 2008-09 crisis, so should be the implicationsNeelkanth Mishra | Last Updated : Jul 13 2023 | 9:33 PM IST This appeared in the Business Standard on July 14, 2023 (link). Despite headline inflation having moderated meaningfully from the peak, bond yields in … Read more

Choosing Stability over Populism

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As the resilience of the domestic economy gets tested by global headwinds, deft fiscal manoeuvres may be necessary Updated: February 2, 2023 07:40 IST | Neelkanth Mishra This appeared in the Indian Express on February 2, 2023 (link) As the state’s footprint on the economy has shrunk over the past three decades, the relevance of … Read more