Piecing together disparate data for economic and market insights
This appeared in the Times of India on 2 February 2025 (link). The choice of the title in the print version is not mine. Even though the role of govt has shrunk meaningfully over the last three decades, muscle memory of years when GOI had a dominant footprint still builds up expectations around the Union … Read more
This appeared in India Today (link) By Neelkanth Mishra | ISSUE DATE: Jan 13, 2025 | UPDATED: Jan 5, 2025 17:09 IST Global economic growth in the calendar year 2025 (CY2025) is currently projected to be unchanged from CY2024 at 3.2 per cent. Given that this is weaker than the growth in the pre-pandemic years, … Read more
This appeared on 1 January 2025 in Outlook Business (link) as part of the cover story on “Chasing Tech Sovereignty” (link). Over the past year, the phrase “India as a product nation” has leapfrogged into public discourse, appearing in manifestoes of political parties, and emerging as a policy priority for the government. To be a … Read more
Neelkanth Mishra | Sep 16, 2024, 11:40:00 PM IST This appeared in the Economic Times on 17 September 2024 (link). The economy has slowed over the past few months. Sales growth has decelerated for both consumption items like cars, and for proxies of investment like cement. This was visible in the June quarter GDP report, … Read more
To sustain rapid economic growth over the medium term, policymakers might need to take some well-calculated risksNeelkanth Mishra This appeared in the Print Edition of Business Today for Sep 15, 2024 (link) In aspiring to be a developed country by 2047, India is trying to achieve in less than 60 years what took most of … Read more
This appeared in the Times of India on 13 August 2024 (link). Over the past two years, consensus on the US economy had shifted from anticipating a ‘hard landing’ (that is, a recession) to a ‘soft landing’: That inflation would be contained without much of a growth sacrifice. Some observers hailed this as ‘immaculate disinflation’. … Read more
This appeared in the Economic Times on 8 July 2024 as “Chinese takeaway plus one“. Over the last few years, as the US-China strategic conflict has intensified, ‘China+1’ has become a popular phrase. Countries, including India, have jostled to be the ‘+1’, easing policies and providing incentives to attract foreign firms trying to reduce their … Read more
Neelkanth Mishra | March 28, 2024, 11:45pm This was published in the Economic Times on 29 March 2024 (link). ‘If the economy is growing so fast, why is our volume growth so weak?’ is a question asked by management teams of several large consumer companies. These concerns have intensified after the recent strong GDP release, … Read more
Government is undertaking difficult job of dialling back its spending, marking a near complete unwinding of the pandemic-driven fiscal expansionWritten by Neelkanth MishraFebruary 2, 2024 06:55 IST This appeared in the Indian Express on 2 February, 2024 (link). Economic theory suggests that governments should spend more when private firms and households do not feel confident … Read more
Neelkanth Mishra | 2 November 2023 This appeared in the Economic Times on 2 November 2023 (link). Nineteen months after the Fed started hiking interest rates, and forecasters issued recession warnings, US growth remains robust, with 2023 forecasts getting upgraded. Economic output in the September 2023 quarter rose a remarkable 4.9% year-on-year, much better than … Read more