Piecing together disparate data for economic and market insights
May 19, 2026 | This appeared in the Economic Times print version on 20 May 2026 (link). The kindest take on the recently concluded US-China summit in Beijing was that the relationship has ‘improved’ from antagonism to direct engagement. That the meeting ended without acrimony was an achievement. The US has recalibrated its approach towards … Read more
The US-Israel war against Iran is rolling into unrestricted warfare — until oil and gas inventories last This appeared in the Economic Times on 23 March 2026 (link). The war in West Asia is now like a chess endgame in which one side is trying to survive by running down the clock, and the other … Read more
This appeared in the Times of India on 4 March 2026 (link). Nearly everyone expected this to be a short war. Not just those who started it, but also commodity markets. Oil prices jumped around 10% when the conflict started, much less than the reaction when Russia attacked Ukraine. This is understandable: Iran exports only … Read more
Aug 1, 2025, 20:33 IST If India stops buying Russian energy, it won’t lose much because the price advantage per barrel vis-à-vis Brent is down to two dollars or so. But were India & China to stop buying from Russia, global oil prices will likely jump, hurting everyone, US consumers included This appeared in the … Read more
Last Updated: May 13, 2025, 12:44:00 AM IST This appeared in the Economic Times on 13 May 2025 (link) An investing Rip Van Winkle who went to sleep on April 1 and woke up now, would not realise the world had seen the biggest shock to global trade since WW2. Equity markets, including in the … Read more
This appeared in the Times of India on 13 August 2024 (link). Over the past two years, consensus on the US economy had shifted from anticipating a ‘hard landing’ (that is, a recession) to a ‘soft landing’: That inflation would be contained without much of a growth sacrifice. Some observers hailed this as ‘immaculate disinflation’. … Read more
Continuing fiscal laxity in the US means monetary policy must do more of the inflation fighting, increasing risks of financial accidents Neelkanth Mishra | Last Updated : May 08 2023 | 10:16 PM IST This appeared in the Business Standard on 9 May 2023 (link). Volatility in stock prices of US banks has persisted, even … Read more
Recent evidence of a sharp slowdown in house construction in major markets poses downside risks to global growthNeelkanth Mishra | Apr 10 2023 | 10:31 PM IST This appeared in the Business Standard on April 11, 2023 (link). An important and potent channel of monetary policy transmission is the housing market. Weakness in housing demand … Read more