pandemic

Good news: The Rich are spending

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Data shows India’s top 10% in brisk consumption mode. Trend will likely hold post-festivals Neelkanth Mishra | Oct 19, 2021, 19:14 IST This appeared in the Times of India on October 20, 2021 (link). Our mobility-based estimate of GDP suggests the rate of output last fortnight was where it would have been had there been … Read more

Relying on Growth: opinion piece on the union budget

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Aware of its own limitations, the government is carefully supporting industrial and consumer sentiment to take economy back to pre-pandemic pathIn some ways, what the government did not do is as important while assessing its focus on the quality of expenditure.Written by Neelkanth Mishra | February 2, 2021 3:00:06 am This appeared in the Indian … Read more

How much better can FY22 be?

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FY22 was once projected to be 13 per cent higher than FY20. Can six months of lockdown bring growth down to 1 per cent?Neelkanth Mishra | Last Updated at January 4, 2021 23:55 IST This was published in the Business Standard (link). India appears to be well on its way to putting the Covid-19 pandemic … Read more

A calibrated package

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One must appreciate the restraint in “spending other people’s money”, a tendency most regimes find hard to resist. But it is equally important that nominal GDP growth picks up strongly.Written by Neelkanth Mishra | Updated: November 14, 2020 8:44:51 am (This was published in the Indian Express: link) The third package confirms some patterns in … Read more

The post-lockdown scars

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As economic indicators and tax receipts improve, evidence of stress begin to appear tooNeelkanth Mishra | Last Updated at November 3, 2020 03:08 IST (This was published in the Business Standard: link) While assessing the post-pandemic economy, last month’s Tessellatum (“After the Storm”, October 6), expected upper-income wage earners to exit the lockdown with higher … Read more

An Expert Explains: Decoding India’s GDP contraction by 23.9%

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The contraction seen in first-quarter GDP data is severe, but not unexpected. What should be done — or not done – at the level of govt policy so that the economy gets a chance to rebound as quickly as possible?Written by Neelkanth Mishra | Updated: September 13, 2020 11:43:51 am (This was published in the … Read more

Are Covid and the economy still linked?

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The pandemic, much less fatal than earlier feared, is now beyond control, but the economy can still be helpedNeelkanth Mishra | Last Updated at September 2, 2020 02:10 IST (This was published in the Business Standard: link) The Covid-19 pandemic count continues to grow in India, but most concurrent indicators of economic activity continue to … Read more

After the rural recovery

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As private investment and consumption settle at far lower levels than earlier anticipated, the government’s role in the economy over the next two years or so would need to be much larger than it has been in the last three decades.Written by Neelkanth Mishra | Updated: July 29, 2020 8:58:37 am (This was published in … Read more

Untested Covid control

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Will the strategy of society instead of the State controlling the virus be tested by rising deaths?Neelkanth Mishra | Last Updated at June 3, 2020 00:04 IST (This was published in the Business Standard: link) “Countries would be assessed on State capacity,” said a New York-based investor who specialises in trading on macroeconomic trends. This … Read more

The Credit Lifeline

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We believe a continued focus on reforms and on sustaining India’s growth potential will be critical in preventing macroeconomic instability.Written by Neelkanth Mishra | Updated: May 15, 2020 9:52:41 am (This was published in the Indian Express: link) The battle against the virus is likely to last several more months, implying prolonged curtailment of economic … Read more