Covid-19

Relying on Growth: opinion piece on the union budget

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Aware of its own limitations, the government is carefully supporting industrial and consumer sentiment to take economy back to pre-pandemic pathIn some ways, what the government did not do is as important while assessing its focus on the quality of expenditure.Written by Neelkanth Mishra | February 2, 2021 3:00:06 am This appeared in the Indian … Read more

What to look for in the upcoming budget

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This appeared in the Explained section of the Indian Express (link) on 26-January-2021. On February 1, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman will present what could turn out to be India’s most consequential Budget in years. What is the status of the post-Covid recovery process, and what are the concerns going forward? What should you look for … Read more

Global Economy: Sunnier growth with a chance of volatility

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The pandemic will leave some economic scars globally; given the uncertainty in the global economy and polity, our policymakers must avoid dogma and remain agile. Neelkanth Mishra | January 9, 2021This appear in India Today (link). ISSUE DATE: January 18, 2021 UPDATED: January 9, 2021 02:36 IST Hope 2021 is better than 2020” sets a … Read more

How much better can FY22 be?

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FY22 was once projected to be 13 per cent higher than FY20. Can six months of lockdown bring growth down to 1 per cent?Neelkanth Mishra | Last Updated at January 4, 2021 23:55 IST This was published in the Business Standard (link). India appears to be well on its way to putting the Covid-19 pandemic … Read more

A calibrated package

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One must appreciate the restraint in “spending other people’s money”, a tendency most regimes find hard to resist. But it is equally important that nominal GDP growth picks up strongly.Written by Neelkanth Mishra | Updated: November 14, 2020 8:44:51 am (This was published in the Indian Express: link) The third package confirms some patterns in … Read more

The post-lockdown scars

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As economic indicators and tax receipts improve, evidence of stress begin to appear tooNeelkanth Mishra | Last Updated at November 3, 2020 03:08 IST (This was published in the Business Standard: link) While assessing the post-pandemic economy, last month’s Tessellatum (“After the Storm”, October 6), expected upper-income wage earners to exit the lockdown with higher … Read more

After the storm: Taking stock of the economic scars of the pandemic

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Now that the steep decline in economic activity is behind us, it is time to assess what parts of the economy have the worst scarsNeelkanth Mishra | Last Updated at October 6, 2020 06:47 IST (This was published in the Business Standard: link) Even as the number of cases and daily deaths are at unacceptably … Read more

An Expert Explains: Decoding India’s GDP contraction by 23.9%

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The contraction seen in first-quarter GDP data is severe, but not unexpected. What should be done — or not done – at the level of govt policy so that the economy gets a chance to rebound as quickly as possible?Written by Neelkanth Mishra | Updated: September 13, 2020 11:43:51 am (This was published in the … Read more

Are Covid and the economy still linked?

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The pandemic, much less fatal than earlier feared, is now beyond control, but the economy can still be helpedNeelkanth Mishra | Last Updated at September 2, 2020 02:10 IST (This was published in the Business Standard: link) The Covid-19 pandemic count continues to grow in India, but most concurrent indicators of economic activity continue to … Read more

After the rural recovery

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As private investment and consumption settle at far lower levels than earlier anticipated, the government’s role in the economy over the next two years or so would need to be much larger than it has been in the last three decades.Written by Neelkanth Mishra | Updated: July 29, 2020 8:58:37 am (This was published in … Read more