GDP

What to look for in the upcoming budget

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This appeared in the Explained section of the Indian Express (link) on 26-January-2021. On February 1, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman will present what could turn out to be India’s most consequential Budget in years. What is the status of the post-Covid recovery process, and what are the concerns going forward? What should you look for … Read more

The post-lockdown scars

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As economic indicators and tax receipts improve, evidence of stress begin to appear tooNeelkanth Mishra | Last Updated at November 3, 2020 03:08 IST (This was published in the Business Standard: link) While assessing the post-pandemic economy, last month’s Tessellatum (“After the Storm”, October 6), expected upper-income wage earners to exit the lockdown with higher … Read more

After the storm: Taking stock of the economic scars of the pandemic

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Now that the steep decline in economic activity is behind us, it is time to assess what parts of the economy have the worst scarsNeelkanth Mishra | Last Updated at October 6, 2020 06:47 IST (This was published in the Business Standard: link) Even as the number of cases and daily deaths are at unacceptably … Read more

An Expert Explains: Decoding India’s GDP contraction by 23.9%

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The contraction seen in first-quarter GDP data is severe, but not unexpected. What should be done — or not done – at the level of govt policy so that the economy gets a chance to rebound as quickly as possible?Written by Neelkanth Mishra | Updated: September 13, 2020 11:43:51 am (This was published in the … Read more

Untested Covid control

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Will the strategy of society instead of the State controlling the virus be tested by rising deaths?Neelkanth Mishra | Last Updated at June 3, 2020 00:04 IST (This was published in the Business Standard: link) “Countries would be assessed on State capacity,” said a New York-based investor who specialises in trading on macroeconomic trends. This … Read more

Who should bear the losses?

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It may be better for governments to bear the losses upfront than after the damage is doneNeelkanth Mishra | Last Updated at May 5, 2020 23:53 IST (This was published in the Business Standard: link) It now looks clear that we must learn to live with coronavirus, as the active case count is unlikely to … Read more

Can we stop the clock?

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To minimise economic damage during the lockdown, focus on cash flows, promise of growthNeelkanth Mishra | Last Updated at March 31, 2020 23:49 IST (This was published in the Business Standard: link) “I have seen power blackouts as enemy bombers flew overhead, have stood in long queues to collect kerosene, and have lived through food … Read more

Signals from the market

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The narrower stock-market indices may stay disconnected from prospects of the Indian economyNeelkanth Mishra | Last Updated at February 12, 2020 22:23 IST (This was published in the Business Standard: link) The stock market is widely believed to be a forward-looking indicator of the economy. While one may struggle to find an individual who has … Read more

Some stability, but risks remain

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With destocking over, growth is stabilising but its revival faces several pro-cyclical headwindsNeelkanth Mishra | Last Updated at January 16, 2020 00:33 IST (This was published in the Business Standard: link) The (only) good feature of destocking-led economic slowdowns is that they end. After all, you cannot keep cutting inventories indefinitely. A significant part of … Read more