Piecing together disparate data for economic and market insights
We discuss how demographic changes are faster than economic shifts, the Ego, Economy, Ethnicity Framework, the strong links between demographics and Economic Growth, the impact of Aging Populations, immigration as a solution, and India’s demographic outlook
We discuss lessons India can draw from past currency wars to navigate the turbulent years ahead. We discuss how, in the decade before the Bretton Woods system, countries devalued their currencies to gain trade advantages—and how similar pressures are resurfacing today as major economies look to depreciate their exchange rates. Drawing on global historical patterns, … Read more
Aug 1, 2025, 20:33 IST If India stops buying Russian energy, it won’t lose much because the price advantage per barrel vis-à-vis Brent is down to two dollars or so. But were India & China to stop buying from Russia, global oil prices will likely jump, hurting everyone, US consumers included This appeared in the … Read more
This was published in the Economic Times on 8 July 2025 (link) RBI has eased monetary conditions, with MPC members talking of ‘the need to support growth’. The focus now shifts to the first step in growth restoration-a revival in credit growth, that is, monetary transmission. How fast can credit growth pick up, and by … Read more
Last Updated: May 13, 2025, 12:44:00 AM IST This appeared in the Economic Times on 13 May 2025 (link) An investing Rip Van Winkle who went to sleep on April 1 and woke up now, would not realise the world had seen the biggest shock to global trade since WW2. Equity markets, including in the … Read more
This appeared in the Times of India on 2 February 2025 (link). The choice of the title in the print version is not mine. Even though the role of govt has shrunk meaningfully over the last three decades, muscle memory of years when GOI had a dominant footprint still builds up expectations around the Union … Read more
This appeared in India Today (link) By Neelkanth Mishra | ISSUE DATE: Jan 13, 2025 | UPDATED: Jan 5, 2025 17:09 IST Global economic growth in the calendar year 2025 (CY2025) is currently projected to be unchanged from CY2024 at 3.2 per cent. Given that this is weaker than the growth in the pre-pandemic years, … Read more
This appeared on 1 January 2025 in Outlook Business (link) as part of the cover story on “Chasing Tech Sovereignty” (link). Over the past year, the phrase “India as a product nation” has leapfrogged into public discourse, appearing in manifestoes of political parties, and emerging as a policy priority for the government. To be a … Read more
Neelkanth Mishra | Sep 16, 2024, 11:40:00 PM IST This appeared in the Economic Times on 17 September 2024 (link). The economy has slowed over the past few months. Sales growth has decelerated for both consumption items like cars, and for proxies of investment like cement. This was visible in the June quarter GDP report, … Read more
To sustain rapid economic growth over the medium term, policymakers might need to take some well-calculated risksNeelkanth Mishra This appeared in the Print Edition of Business Today for Sep 15, 2024 (link) In aspiring to be a developed country by 2047, India is trying to achieve in less than 60 years what took most of … Read more