We discuss lessons India can draw from past currency wars to navigate the turbulent years ahead. We discuss how, in the decade before the Bretton Woods system, countries devalued their currencies to gain trade advantages—and how similar pressures are resurfacing today as major economies look to depreciate their exchange rates. Drawing on global historical patterns, we explore why India’s medium-term balance of payments outlook is relatively stable, but also why access to foreign capital and careful currency calibration will be crucial for sustaining growth.
The current period of global economic flux is a rare opportunity for India to take difficult but necessary reform decisions—removing barriers for entrepreneurs and farmers, improving access to technology, and building resilience against a more protectionist world order. Without such reforms, sustaining current growth rates could become a challenge.