Piecing together disparate data for economic and market insights
The pandemic will leave some economic scars globally; given the uncertainty in the global economy and polity, our policymakers must avoid dogma and remain agile. Neelkanth Mishra | January 9, 2021This appear in India Today (link). ISSUE DATE: January 18, 2021 UPDATED: January 9, 2021 02:36 IST Hope 2021 is better than 2020” sets a … Read more
FY22 was once projected to be 13 per cent higher than FY20. Can six months of lockdown bring growth down to 1 per cent?Neelkanth Mishra | Last Updated at January 4, 2021 23:55 IST This was published in the Business Standard (link). India appears to be well on its way to putting the Covid-19 pandemic … Read more
Cross-border capital flows do not just get driven by interest rates; plumbing and savings patterns may matter moreNeelkanth Mishra | Last Updated at November 30, 2020 23:38 IST (This was published in the Business Standard: link) Portfolio equity inflows into emerging markets (EMs) picked up strongly in November as the US election uncertainty lifted, and … Read more
One must appreciate the restraint in “spending other people’s money”, a tendency most regimes find hard to resist. But it is equally important that nominal GDP growth picks up strongly.Written by Neelkanth Mishra | Updated: November 14, 2020 8:44:51 am (This was published in the Indian Express: link) The third package confirms some patterns in … Read more
As economic indicators and tax receipts improve, evidence of stress begin to appear tooNeelkanth Mishra | Last Updated at November 3, 2020 03:08 IST (This was published in the Business Standard: link) While assessing the post-pandemic economy, last month’s Tessellatum (“After the Storm”, October 6), expected upper-income wage earners to exit the lockdown with higher … Read more
New MPC’s unambiguous messaging on inflation should help buyers of government bonds take the riskWritten by Neelkanth Mishra | Updated: October 12, 2020 8:53:54 am (This was published in the Indian Express: link) The economy is rebounding faster than earlier expected, and year-on-year comparisons, only partly helped by the economic weakness seen in the second … Read more
Now that the steep decline in economic activity is behind us, it is time to assess what parts of the economy have the worst scarsNeelkanth Mishra | Last Updated at October 6, 2020 06:47 IST (This was published in the Business Standard: link) Even as the number of cases and daily deaths are at unacceptably … Read more
The contraction seen in first-quarter GDP data is severe, but not unexpected. What should be done — or not done – at the level of govt policy so that the economy gets a chance to rebound as quickly as possible?Written by Neelkanth Mishra | Updated: September 13, 2020 11:43:51 am (This was published in the … Read more
The pandemic, much less fatal than earlier feared, is now beyond control, but the economy can still be helpedNeelkanth Mishra | Last Updated at September 2, 2020 02:10 IST (This was published in the Business Standard: link) The Covid-19 pandemic count continues to grow in India, but most concurrent indicators of economic activity continue to … Read more
Diverging fiscal responses to the crisis can create serious macroeconomic challenges for countries globallyNeelkanth Mishra | Last Updated at August 5, 2020 01:42 IST (This was published in the Business Standard: link) The Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI’s) balance sheet size has grown sharply to 27 per cent of gross domestic product (GDP) in early … Read more