Piecing together disparate data for economic and market insights
RBI may target 3-4% depreciation per quarter till trade deficit, at a record high, remains a problem Neelkanth Mishra | Jul 4, 2022. This appeared in the Times of India on July 5, 2022 (link). With oil prices up, a record trade deficit of US$70.25bn in the April-June quarter, rupee sliding and GoI taking some … Read more
Growth downturns can expose vulnerabilities that increase market risks Neelkanth Mishra | July 4, 2022 22:44 IST This appeared in the Business Standard on July 5, 2022 (link). There are two drivers of market downturns: Cuts to forward earnings estimates and a decline in the price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple that investors ascribe to them. A 15 … Read more
Even as some inflationary impulses fade, others of more recent vintage pose new and bigger risks; one must disentangle multiple strands to reduce risk of policy errors Neelkanth Mishra | Last Updated at June 6, 2022 22:27 IST This appeared in the Business Standard on June 7, 2022 (link). An idealised wave has a predictable … Read more
Letting the rupee weaken may be the least bad option; raising interest rates to slow imports is too blunt an instrumentNeelkanth Mishra | Last Updated at May 2, 2022 22:35 IST This appeared in the Business Standard on May 3, 2022 (link). There is turmoil in the global economy. First Covid and then a war … Read more
Not delivering on quality or not honouring commitments sustainably can have counter-productive long-term effects Written by Devesh Roy , Neelkanth Mishra | Updated: April 21, 2022 6:48:51 am This column, co-authored with Devesh @ IFPRI first appeared in the print edition on April 21, 2022 under the title ‘India’s wheat opportunity’ (link). The effects of … Read more
Neelkanth Mishra | April 19, 2022, 8:31PM IST This appeared in the Times of India on April 20, 2022 (link) Sanctions following the Russia-Ukraine conflict have triggered much discussion on how other countries would manage their foreign currency (FX) reserves going forward. These reserves are a country’s insurance against economic shocks, like households or companies … Read more
2021 not only saw record funding creating a third of the country’s unicorns, but also the first major listings, providing new valuation anchors Neelkanth MishraLast Updated at April 5, 2022 00:15 IST This was published in the Business Standard on April 6, 2022 (link). Over the past year, India added a record 38 new unicorns … Read more
If energy prices remain this high for a year, they could shave 3 per cent off India’s GDP, weaken the currency Neelkanth Mishra | Last Updated at March 7, 2022 21:50 IST This appeared in the Business Standard on March 8, 2022 (link). We ended the Tessellatum last November, The Energy Headwind, with a hope … Read more
Indian government bonds are now cheaper than Indian equities. The post-Budget rise in bond yields in India is more due to plumbing challenges than insufficient savings Neelkanth Mishra | Last Updated at February 7, 2022 23:20 This appeared in the Business Standard on February 8, 2022 (link). As economies emerge out of the shadows of … Read more
Governments face a new fiscal situation: They have more funds than they can allocate Written by Neelkanth Mishra | Updated: February 2, 2022 4:58:16 am This appeared in the Indian Express on 2 February 2022 (link). If the tax-to-GDP ratio continues to climb, as it appears likely to, fiscal space may continue to expand, even … Read more